Twenty months after Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine, the west might be tempted to think the conflict has turned into a
sideshow. Vladimir Putin has distracted attention with his direct military intervention in Syria on behalf of the Assad regime. The stealth war in the Donbass region,
pitting Kiev against pro-Russia rebels, is also far less volatile than it has
been. But to assume that the Ukraine crisis has passed would be a mistake.
Renewed concerns have emerged because of the approach that Ukraine has
started to adopt towards Crimea. Although the Kremlin annexed it last year, the peninsula has no land
border with Russia and its inhabitants rely on Ukraine for 70 per cent of
electricity supplies. Last weekend, protesters blew up pylons carrying
transmission lines to Crimea, plunging the streets into darkness and closing businesses.
Much about this incident remains unclear. The saboteurs appear to have
been Ukrainian nationalists and exiled Crimean Tatars. Kiev has been dragging
its feet when it comes to restoring the power lines. Petro Poroshenko,
Ukraine’s president, has also chosen this moment to impose a trade blockade on
Crimea, backing the Tatars over alleged abuses of their human rights.
There are reasons why Mr Poroshenko might wish to renew the
confrontation with Russia over Crimea at this time. He may want to turn the
west’s attention back to his own country just as the US and its allies are
tempted to make a tactical rapprochement with Russia in the fight against Isis
in Syria. He may be keen to respond to Moscow’s threat to launch a trade war
against Kiev when an EU-Ukraine commercial treaty takes effect in January.
Mr Poroshenko is probably also attempting to distract domestic attention
from the government’s failure to drive through sweeping reforms to end the
oligarchic domination of the economy and political system. Even so, he would be
wise to stop the current tension over Crimea developing further.
Ukraine’s concerns about being forgotten by the west are legitimate and
understandable. Kiev has watched impotently the illegal annexation of part of
its territory by Russia, and a Russian-fomented separatist rebellion in its
eastern regions. Its government and citizens have shown fortitude and
forbearance throughout the past 20 months, the most testing period in the
country’s post-independence history.
However, blockading the peninsula — directly or indirectly — is not
justified. Kiev must retain the moral high ground in its dispute with the
Kremlin, ensuring electricity and goods are delivered to people who it says are
Ukrainian citizens. The government should not be seeking to divert attention
from public concerns over the slow pace of economic reforms. Redoubling its efforts
to implement them is the best way forward.
The west should focus on the imperative that all sides abide by
February’s Minsk agreement and prevent a resurgence of the war. Ukraine needs
to pass constitutional changes granting greater autonomy to its regions,
including the breakaway east. Russia must withdraw its troops and restore
control of the international border to Ukraine. The US and EU should make clear
that they will ease sanctions against Russia only if Minsk’s provisions are
fulfilled.
This is a moment for the west to offer assurances to Mr Poroshenko. It
needs to emphasise that, however acute the situation in Syria, there will be no
private bargain with Moscow at Kiev’s expense. Mr Poroshenko must also play his
part. He needs to avoid provocative actions in Crimea that ultimately will only
rebound to Mr Putin’s benefit on the diplomatic stage.
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